Hindsight Isn’t 20/20

“Hindsight is 20/20” is perhaps one of the most well known and frequently used aphorisms in English. That said, for those who may not be familiar with the phrase, the numbers in that statement make reference to what might be termed normal visual acuity or how well a person sees. Today, this is measured using a number of sophisticated optometry tools but in the mid-1800s would have been measured using a Snellen Chart.

A person with lower than normal visual acuity would have to move closer to the chart to see all the characters clearly. Let’s suppose a person has to stand just 10 feet away in order to see all the characters clearly. Their acuity is essentially half that of a 20/20 person. However, instead of writing the ratio as 10/20 it is written as 20/40. That is, a person with good visual acuity can see clearly at 40 feet what our patient sees clearly at 20 feet. Confused?

Snellen Charts were first published in 1862 so it’s possible the phrase “hindsight is 20/20” appeared then. The origin of the phrase, however, is unclear. (See what I did there?)

Most people speak their native language, including its idioms and other unique expressions, without knowing or thinking about the origin of most of words they say. For most people, studying words and their origins serves no practical purpose. However, idiomatic expressions in particular, can be widely misused because they are misunderstood.

Hindsight is 20/20 is a perfect example of confirmation bias and is essentially not true. Let’s look at a somewhat oversimplified example of what I mean.

It’s Monday morning and my boss comes to me at work requesting a particular report. He wants it on his desk by Thursday. I decide to put off working on the report until Tuesday, certain that I will have time Tuesday and Wednesday to complete the report in time for the Thursday deadline. Monday afternoon, I’m called out of the office on an emergency customer visit out of town. I forget about the report. Thursday morning comes and I remember that I haven’t finished the report. I try to explain to my boss what happened but his response is simply to ask why I didn’t work on it Monday when I had the time.

Hindsight tells me that if I had done the report Monday, I wouldn’t have to explain myself to the boss. Hindsight gives the impression that I have identified the only thing that prevented me from completing the report on time. However, any number of unseen things could have come along and derailed my progress.

It seems the statement implies that when we look back on what happened, we can see perfectly why that thing took place. The reality is, however, that most experiences are far too complex to narrow down to a single causal event. Like the confusing ratio itself, relying a hindsight being 20/20 limits our ability to learn from prior experiences.

Consider each of these phrases:

• If she had been wearing her seatbelt. . .

• If he had remembered to mail the rent check on time. . .

• If they’d only spent more time with their son. . .

• If they’d treated the neighbor differently. . .

There’s a good chance your brain autocompleted each of those statements with something you’ve heard in the past or perhaps your own experience. However, what we know is:

• Wearing a seatbelt doesn’t guarantee safety in an accident.

• Sending the rent check on time doesn’t control its timely arrival.

• Spending more time with a child may not change their choices.

• Treating your neighbor differently may still result in him being a jerk.

Hindsight doesn’t grant us ability to change outcomes nor does it show us all the causal events involved in the experience. Hindsight, at best, helps us assign value and relevance to those experiences that would have been different if we could have foreseen outcomes. Fortunately, we can’t see the future. While seeing the future might prevent some tragic events, it would also rob us of every opportunity to learn from experience. Side note: it is our inability to see the future that is also the very thing that creates the bias in hindsight.

So, if hindsight isn’t perfect clarity of a past event and why it took place, what good is hindsight? Just because it isn’t perfect, that doesn’t mean we should discount it entirely. Hindsight can be a powerful tool to add clarity, meaning, and understanding to past mistakes and situations so that we don’t repeat them in the future.

Next time you use the phrase (or any other aphorism for that matter) take a moment to consider the meaning behind it. Otherwise, you might miss out on an opportunity to learn.

Thanks for reading!